(Trying to) Use MLB Results to Predict the Super Bowl

Super Bowl 48 is expected to be a close contest, with each team having legitimate reasons why they could or should win.  Since I don’t really have a rooting interest, and I’m pining very hard for baseball, I decided to see if the winning league in MLB’s All-Star Game and/or World Series could be used as a predictor of the winning conference in the Super Bowl.

Below you will find the yearly winners of the World Series, All-Star Game from 1966 forward, and that season’s Super Bowl :

1966 AL NL NFC
1967 NL NL NFC
1968 AL NL AFC
1969 NL NL AFC
1970 AL NL AFC
1971 NL AL NFC
1972 AL NL AFC
1973 AL NL AFC
1974 AL NL AFC
1975 NL NL AFC
1976 NL NL AFC
1977 AL NL NFC
1978 AL NL AFC
1979 NL NL AFC
1980 NL NL AFC
1981 NL NL NFC
1982 NL NL NFC
1983 AL AL AFC
1984 AL NL NFC
1985 AL NL NFC
1986 NL AL NFC
1987 AL NL NFC
1988 NL AL NFC
1989 AL AL NFC
1990 NL AL NFC
1991 AL AL NFC
1992 AL AL NFC
1993 AL AL NFC
1995 NL NL NFC
1996 AL NL NFC
1997 NL AL AFC
1998 AL AL AFC
1999 AL AL NFC
2000 AL AL AFC
2001 NL AL AFC
2003 NL AL AFC
2004 AL AL AFC
2005 AL AL AFC
2006 NL AL AFC
2007 AL AL NFC
2008 NL AL AFC
2009 AL AL NFC
2010 NL NL NFC
2011 NL NL NFC
2012 NL NL AFC
2013 AL AL  ???

Here are the results.  When the AL wins the All-Star Game, and you don’t consider the World Series result, the NFC holds a 11-10 edge in the Super Bowl.  When the NL wins the All-Star Game, and you disregard the World Series, the conferences are tied at 12-all.

If you consider the World Series alone, an AL victory has led to the NFC winning 13 out of 24 times, while an NL title has resulted in 11-10 margin for the AFC.

When the AL wins both the All-Star Game and World Series, as it did this year, the NFC has won the Super Bowl seven out of 12 times.  This is actually the greatest difference, percentage-wise, of any of the possible combinations.

ASG SB Total
AL WS AL 5 7 12
NL 5 4 9
Total 10 11 21
NL WS AL 6 6 12
NL 6 6 12
NONE 0 1 1
Total 12 13 25
TIE WS AL  0 1 1
Total  0 1 1

So, it you choose to use this method to bet on the big game (and please don’t), take the Seahawks.



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