(Trying to) Use MLB Results to Predict the Super Bowl

Super Bowl 48 is expected to be a close contest, with each team having legitimate reasons why they could or should win.  Since I don’t really have a rooting interest, and I’m pining very hard for baseball, I decided to see if the winning league in MLB’s All-Star Game and/or World Series could be used as a predictor of the winning conference in the Super Bowl.

Below you will find the yearly winners of the World Series, All-Star Game from 1966 forward, and that season’s Super Bowl :

YEAR WS ASG SB
1966 AL NL NFC
1967 NL NL NFC
1968 AL NL AFC
1969 NL NL AFC
1970 AL NL AFC
1971 NL AL NFC
1972 AL NL AFC
1973 AL NL AFC
1974 AL NL AFC
1975 NL NL AFC
1976 NL NL AFC
1977 AL NL NFC
1978 AL NL AFC
1979 NL NL AFC
1980 NL NL AFC
1981 NL NL NFC
1982 NL NL NFC
1983 AL AL AFC
1984 AL NL NFC
1985 AL NL NFC
1986 NL AL NFC
1987 AL NL NFC
1988 NL AL NFC
1989 AL AL NFC
1990 NL AL NFC
1991 AL AL NFC
1992 AL AL NFC
1993 AL AL NFC
1994 NONE NL NFC
1995 NL NL NFC
1996 AL NL NFC
1997 NL AL AFC
1998 AL AL AFC
1999 AL AL NFC
2000 AL AL AFC
2001 NL AL AFC
2002 AL TIE NFC
2003 NL AL AFC
2004 AL AL AFC
2005 AL AL AFC
2006 NL AL AFC
2007 AL AL NFC
2008 NL AL AFC
2009 AL AL NFC
2010 NL NL NFC
2011 NL NL NFC
2012 NL NL AFC
2013 AL AL  ???

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Michael Wacha’s Drive for Five

If the Cardinals are going to make it to game seven of this World Series, they’re going to need another sterling performance from rookie hurler Michael Wacha.  Wacha, who won three games as a starter and one in relief during the regular season, has amassed a 4-0 record in four starts this post-season, with a 1.00 ERA in 27 innings with 28 strikeouts against eight walks and 11 hits:

Series Opp Dec IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA
NLDS g4 PIT W(1-0) 7.1 1 1 1 2 9 1 1.23
NLCS g2 LAD W(2-0) 6.2 5 0 0 1 8 0 0.64
NLCS g6 LAD W(3-0) 7.0 2 0 0 1 5 0 0.43
WS g2 BOS W(4-0) 6.0 3 2 2 4 6 1 1.00
27.0 11 3 3 8 28 2 1.00
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/29/2013.

Between the length of the series the Cards have been involved in (one less than the maximum for a division-winner to this point), and his status as number two starter in the Cardinals playoff rotation, Wacha has been able to make four starts in his team’s first 16 playoff games.   His start Wednesday will be his fifth.

Here are the pitchers to make at least five starts in one post-season.  Schilling and Carpenter each made two starts on three days rest, allowing them to make a record six starts:

Player Year Starts W ERA IP H BB SO
Curt Schilling 2001 6 4 1.12 48.1 25 6 56
Chris Carpenter 2011 6 4 3.25 36.0 31 11 21
Jaret Wright 1997 5 3 4.72 26.2 24 19 25
C.J. Wilson 2011 5 0 6.08 26.2 29 19 24
Jeff Weaver 2006 5 3 2.43 29.2 25 9 19
Jarrod Washburn 2002 5 1 5.02 28.2 30 10 17
Adam Wainwright 2013 5 2 2.57 35.0 31 3 34
Frank Viola 1987 5 3 4.31 31.1 31 8 25
Fernando Valenzuela 1981 5 3 2.21 40.2 29 15 26
John Tudor 1985 5 3 2.93 30.2 25 10 22
John Smoltz 1996 5 4 0.95 38.0 22 13 33
John Smoltz 1992 5 3 2.67 33.2 27 17 31
CC Sabathia 2009 5 3 1.98 36.1 28 9 32
Jerry Reuss 1981 5 2 2.21 36.2 27 9 17
Deacon Phillippe 1903 5 3 3.07 44.0 38 3 22
Andy Pettitte 2003 5 3 2.10 34.1 33 11 34
Andy Pettitte 2000 5 2 2.84 31.2 40 8 18
Andy Pettitte 2009 5 4 3.52 30.2 26 11 25
Andy Pettitte 2001 5 2 4.55 29.2 30 6 21
Andy Pettitte 1996 5 2 4.78 32.0 25 15 15
Russ Ortiz 2002 5 2 5.76 25.0 27 13 13
Jack Morris 1991 5 4 2.23 36.1 35 10 22
Dennis Martinez 1995 5 1 2.73 29.2 27 11 14
Greg Maddux 1995 5 3 2.84 38.0 35 7 19
Greg Maddux 1996 5 3 1.70 37.0 32 3 22
Tim Lincecum 2010 5 4 2.45 36.2 23 9 42
Jon Lester 2013 5 4 1.56 34.2 25 8 29
Cliff Lee 2010 5 3 2.78 35.2 27 2 47
Cliff Lee 2009 5 4 1.56 40.1 27 6 33
Scott Kazmir 2008 5 1 4.21 25.2 26 18 22
Randy Johnson 2001 5 4 1.57 40.0 25 8 46
Bruce Hurst 1986 5 3 2.13 38.0 36 7 25
Burt Hooton 1981 5 4 0.82 33.0 22 18 12
Orel Hershiser 1988 5 3 1.06 42.1 25 13 32
Orel Hershiser 1997 5 0 5.72 28.1 33 9 16
Orel Hershiser 1995 5 4 1.53 35.1 20 9 35
Cole Hamels 2008 5 4 1.80 35.0 23 9 30
Jaime Garcia 2011 5 0 4.21 25.2 27 8 21
Roger Clemens 2001 5 1 2.36 26.2 20 12 32
Roger Clemens 1986 5 1 3.97 34.0 31 13 28
Chris Carpenter 2006 5 3 2.78 32.1 28 8 23
Matt Cain 2012 5 2 3.60 30.0 27 7 20
A.J. Burnett 2009 5 1 5.27 27.1 22 16 24
Kevin Brown 1997 5 2 4.91 33.0 35 10 22
Kevin Brown 1998 5 2 1.89 38.0 22 16 45
Josh Beckett 2003 5 2 2.09 38.2 20 12 44
Kevin Appier 2002 5 0 6.23 21.2 24 12 10
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/29/2013.

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The VORG 2013 World Series Preview

Other sites can give you all the match-ups and tactical forecasts for the showdown between the Red Sox and Cardinals.  At the VORG, we’re going to give you the fact(oids) about each of the main contributors for each team: Cardinals: Yadier Molina, in his age-30 season, lashed a career-high 44 doubles in 2013. That is … Read more

The VORG 2012 World Series Preview

Here’s some things you probably didn’t know about each member of the World Series teams (based on presumed rosters as of Tuesday afternoon). First up, the Tigers: Pitchers  Al Alburquerque : Has not allowed a homerun in his 56.2 inning MLB career (regular season).  Only player in MLB history with two “Qs” in his name. … Read more

This Year we will have World Series CVIII (corrected)

Unless you’ve been in a hyperbaric chamber, state of suspended animation or a cave the last two weeks, you know that tomorrow will be Super Bowl 46.  But the NFL, in what I can only hope was a nod to the “Roman gladiator”-style entertainment of the sport, identifies each year’s final game by a Roman … Read more

The VORG World Series Preview

Other sites can give you all the match-ups and tactical forecasts for the showdown between the Rangers and Cardinals.  At the VORG, we’re going to give you the fact(oids): Cardinals: Yadier Molasses Molina stole four bases in 2011, and is now up to 25 for his career.  This ties him for 83rd all-time amongst catchers.  … Read more